What is the Doomsday Argument? The Doomsday Argument is a thought-provoking idea that tries to guess when humans might no longer exist based on math and the idea that we are probably not living in a very special time in human history.

The Doomsday argument is an important exception. From seemingly trivial premises it seeks to show that the risk that humankind will go extinct soon has been systematically underestimated. Nearly everybody's first reaction is that there must be something wrong with such an argument.

2021年9月29日 · Can we demonstrate, purely from the way that probability works, that the human race is likely to go extinct in the relatively foreseeable future, regardless of what humanity might do to try and prevent it? Yes, according to the so-called Doomsday Argument. Here's how the argument goes.

WHAT, PRECISELY, IS CARTER’S DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT? Abstract. Paying strict attention to Brandon Carter’s several published ren-ditions of anthropic reasoning, we present a \nutshell" version of the Doomsday argument that is truer to Carter’s principles than the …

of the Doomsday argument, concluding that with 95% confidence the future lifetime of our species is less than 7.8 million years, but more than about 5,100 years (Gott 1993a). Gott’s argument has been discussed in such places as The New York Times (Lerner 1993, Gott 1993b),

We present two strands of argument in favor of this assumption. Through a series of thought experiments we then investigate some bizarre prima facie consequences – backward causation, psychic powers, and an apparent conflict with the Principal Principle.

2019年4月23日 · It’s a famous paradox, generally known as the doomsday argument (“calculation” seemed to make a catchier title, though). The doomsday argument says that we can use our current position in time to make a statistical prediction about how long humanity will survive into the future.

The most important application of the Copernican anthropic principle is the so-called doomsday argument (DA). It has been independently discovered at least three times. Brandon Carter was first, but he did not publish. The other independent co …

2013年4月10日 · Can the Doomsday Argument predict our odds of survival? The classic form of the Doomsday Argument says it’s more likely that we’re closer to the end of our civilization than the beginning. In...

2016年1月8日 · This chapter provides a brief version of the mathematician Brandon Carter's “doomsday argument”, a probabilistic argument that attempts to predict the future lifetime of the human race given an estimate of the total number of humans born thus far.